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USDA’s World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates, Production and Acreage forecasts didn’t take long to be digested into the markets.   Shortly after the initial bearish reaction, a dry weather forecast pushed prices back higher.  Monday prices turned sharply to the downside on a chance in the weather forecasts to a more wet pattern with moderate temperatures.

Corn production for grain is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 5 percent from 2021. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 175.4 bushels per harvested acre, down 1.6 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the June forecast and down 4 percent from the previous year.

Soybean production for beans is forecast at a record high 4.53 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2021. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 51.9 bushels per harvested acre, up 0.5 bushel from 2021. Total planted area, at 88.0 million acres, is down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate but up 1 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 1 percent from 2021.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.20 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the July 1 forecast and down 6 percent from 2021. As of August 1, the United States yield is forecast at 47.9 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 2.3 bushels from last year’s average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.0 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but down 2 percent from last year.

Oat production is forecast at 52.6 million bushels, up 32 percent from 2021. Growers expect to harvest 796,000 acres for grain, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 22 percent from 2021. Based on conditions as of August 1, the United States yield is forecast at 66.1 bushels per acre, unchanged from the previous forecast but 4.8 bushels above the 2021 average yield. Record high yields are expected in Illinois and North Dakota.